The New Russia-North Korea Relationship and Its Impact

BEDADU - Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to North Korea on Tuesday, as announced by the Kremlin, after months of speculation about this highly anticipated visit.

After Kim Jong Un's large bulletproof green train toured Russia's Far East last year, the North Korean leader invited Mr. Putin to visit him. The invitation was gladly accepted.

Over the past week, sources have hinted that the visit would happen soon, and satellite images have shown preparations being made in North Korea.

With the question of "when" answered, the next desire is to hear news about what agreements have been reached, the consequences for the war in Ukraine, and the grand images and ceremonies that will undoubtedly accompany the visit of the two leaders.

The Kremlin has described the event as a "friendly state visit," with Russian media reporting that Mr. Putin and Mr. Kim may sign a partnership agreement, including on security issues, and give a joint statement to the press.

**But why is this important and why now?**

Firstly, there is natural curiosity given that this will only be Mr. Putin's second visit to North Korea - the first was in 2000 at the beginning of his presidential career when Kim Jong Un's father, Kim Jong Il, was still the supreme leader.

But beyond that, this is a relationship that (though not as significant as during the Soviet Union) has now evolved from mutual greetings to mutual benefits, which worries the West.

The Kremlin has said there is room for a "very deep relationship" between Russia and North Korea, and while it says this should not cause anyone concern, it advises those thinking of challenging the developing relationship to think again.

There has been much speculation about what exactly both sides want from each other. And it seems to revolve around supply security.

Russia is likely seeking ammunition, construction workers, and even volunteers to go to the front lines in Ukraine, says political scientist and Putin ally Sergei Markov.

In return, Pyongyang could receive Russian products and technological assistance for military purposes, including its long-range ballistic missile program, which could eventually be within striking distance of the US, added Mr. Markov.

There is no doubt that Russia needs to supply its war efforts in Ukraine.

A recent report from Bloomberg, citing South Korea's defense ministry, indicated that North Korea had sent nearly five million artillery shells to Russia.

Finding a partner that has a strong dislike for sanctions and the West, and therefore wants to trade, is a key selling point for Russia.

After all, Russia and North Korea are two of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world - North Korea for developing nuclear weapons and launching a series of ballistic missile tests.

Earlier this year, Moscow dealt a significant blow to sanctions against Pyongyang by vetoing a UN Security Council resolution to extend the panel overseeing them.

**A friendly diplomatic move.**

And there may even be genuine friendship between the two leaders, albeit cautiously and business-like. In February, Mr. Putin gifted a luxurious Russian limousine to Mr. Kim (which violated UN sanctions).

Mr. Kim said North Korea is an "invincible comrade" with Russia in a recent message to President Putin.

But maybe this is just business and a lack of other options.

Plainly put: North Korea now has greater value to an isolated Russia - and North Korea sees that Moscow needs friends.

By visiting North Korea, Mr. Putin can easily show his critics that he can - and will - do what he wants.

Finding ways to circumvent Western sanctions imposed on his country? For now, yes, he can.

Convincing others to break sanctions and sell weapons to Russia? It seems so.

Building new relationships with countries worldwide while conducting what he calls his "special military operation"? He is certainly trying.

Since President Putin ordered his troops into neighboring Ukraine, he has been promoting the idea that Western dominance is declining - and has approached those who agree with him or are at least open to that philosophy.

At the recent economic forum in St. Petersburg, it was no coincidence that one of Mr. Putin's main guests was the president of Zimbabwe - another country feeling the sting of sanctions.

And Russia has worked hard to show that it has many friends worldwide singing the same tune. From Asia, Latin America, and Africa - anyone who feels tired of the US-led world order is welcomed.

Indeed, when Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa took the stage, President Putin's key words flowed from his speech, with the new "multipolar" world contrasting with the arrogant West trying to maintain its "global hegemony" by any means.

President Putin has also approached closer ties with Iran, another country whipped by sanctions and looking to sell its military goods - in Tehran's case, drones. And if that rattles the West, all the better.

When President Putin finally boards his plane to Pyongyang, he knows the images will captivate the world and leave no doubt that he is willing to do business and politics with partners of his choosing.

And although China may have reservations about Russia's approach to North Korea, all the red lines will be drawn when President Putin and Xi meet during the Russian leader's first foreign trip in his fifth term - which itself is full of symbolism about Russia's shift to the East.

Not many countries stage power ceremonies like Russia - but North Korea can certainly provide competition. And with Russia's shift away from traditional democracy, the gap between the leadership of the two countries seems to be narrowing.

However, this does not mean that ordinary Russians welcome their country's closeness to North Korea, given their cultural and historical ties to Europe and the West. And this is one of the potential risks Mr. Putin faces - as well as new measures taken by Western powers after the two strong leaders' meeting.

In the end, it is very likely we will not know what has been agreed upon - we didn't know when Kim Jong Un came to Russia last year.

But with optics and a strict message, the stage will be set for a decisive Putin to step forward - in the most isolated country in the world - and declare: "Yes, I can - watch me." ***